Uncertain prospects for growth in Italy

Fewer pumped systems

The 8 % decline mentioned above was the result of a survey Assotermica carried out among businesses which are both suppliers of solar thermal systems and members of the association. Together, they represent about 85 % of the Italian market. According to Federico Musazzi, Secretary General of Assotermica, sales of pumped systems fell 9 %, while the market for thermosiphon systems remained more or less stable. “We estimate pumped systems to have contributed 140,000 m² to total sales in 2018,” he stated. “The key factor causing last year’s decline was competition from other technologies, either from heat pumps with regard to hot water production or PV systems because of roof space limitations.” Overall, 179,252 m² (125 MW_th) of collector area was added in 2018.

More data on the 2018 market can be found in the annual activities report of GSE, the government agency managing national incentive programme Conto Termico 2.0. As in previous years, biomass boilers were the most popular technology, with solar water heaters ranking second (see the chart below). The two technologies were responsible for about 90 % of all incentive requests.

Source: GSE

Musazzi said heat pumps were the clear winner in 2018, with a jump in applications by 265 %, even though there was likewise a 75 % surge in applications for solar thermal incentives, from 12,213 in 2017 to 21,350. Overall, the scheme paid owners of renewable energy systems nearly EUR 45 million, at an average of EUR 2,000 per installation. The authors of the report underline that the majority of applications were submitted by private consumers. While there is no statistic that shows what the supported systems are now used for, e.g., to produce hot water, space heating or industrial heat, many of them are most likely small hot water systems, considering that last year’s average incentive amount was rather small. Assuming one system has a size of 4 m² to 5 m², Conto Termico helped install almost 100,000 m² last year, or a bit over 50 % of market volume. The remainder, about 45 %, is the reason why the positive news coming out of the programme cannot be transferred directly to an increase in the total market. “Indeed, the impact of Conto Termico has not yet been properly understood; a positive trend doesn´t necessarily translate into growth,” said Musazzi. One factor that might have played a role in this is the delay between subsidy approval and purchase of the system. According to GSE, 30 % of all applications, not just those for solar incentives, were received in December 2018, making it very likely that most of the associated systems were bought no earlier than the first quarter of 2019.

 

		2017	2018	Increase
Solar thermal	Approved applications	12,213	21,350	75 %
	Incentives granted	EUR 24.75 million	EUR 44.8 million	81 %
	Average per system	EUR 2,026	EUR 2,099
Biomass boilers	Approved applications	23,425	45,302	93 %
	Incentives granted	EUR 51.05 million	EUR 98.4 million	93 %
	Average per system	EUR 2,179	EUR 2,172
Heat pumps	Approved applications	2,337	8,536	265 %
	Incentives granted	EUR 9.81 million	EUR 25.6 million	151 %
	Average per system	EUR 4,923	EUR 3,119