

IEA SHC: Global Technical Solar Process Heat Potential

Chart: Task 49 / IV
Some of the studies which the researchers analysed were published between 2001 and 2011 and dealt with the national markets of six European countries (see the chart above). They resulted in a solar share of 3 to 4 %. The total global process heat demand in 2008 was about 98 exajoules (EJ). Consequently, 4 % of technical potential adds up to 3.9 EJ or a collector area of 2.3 billion m² if average irradiation is at 1,200 kWh/m² and year and average annual collector efficiency at 40 %.
The authors consider a 4 % solar share in national industrial heat demand to be a conservative bottom-line estimate. Global potential should be larger for two reasons: In less densely populated countries, space limitations are often not as pronounced as in highly industrialised ones, and concentrating collectors in regions which have greater direct irradiation potential than Europe offer the opportunity to meet demand for applications at even higher temperatures from 250 to 400 °C.
The 3.9 EJ technical potential of solar process heat is indeed a fairly low baseline if compared to long-term forecasts of international roadmaps (see the following table). However, the scenarios end up with strikingly different values, ranging from 2 to 15 EJ annually based on the target year.
Target year | Solar process heat yield | Source document |
2021 | 2 EJ/year | IEA Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report (MTRMR) 2016 |
2030 | 15 EJ/year | IRENA Renewable Energy Options for the Industry Sector, 2015 |
2030 | 2.32 EJ/year | IEA Technology Roadmap SHC, 2012 |
2050 | 7.2 EJ/year | IEA Technology Roadmap SHC, 2012 |
2050 | 5.6 EJ/year | UNIDO, Renewable Energy in Industrial Applications, 2011 (see the attached document) |
Global technical potential of solar process heat from several international studies
Task 49 / IV Solar Heat Integration in Industrial Processes was a joint effort of the two IEA Technology Collaboration Programmes Solar Heating and Cooling and SolarPaces. During a four-year period, 57 participants (one-third with an industrial background and two-thirds researchers) from 16 countries worked together on projects until the end of the Task in January 2016. The complete collection of studies, guidelines and tools published during that time can be found on: http://task49.iea-shc.org/